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Here's the "raw data", so that if people see something they don't understand/believe, they'll see where I calculated from. If you see something you see is wrong, please be as specific as possible (e.g., "John Doe was optioned to AAA in July of 2007, and you don't list that - he's out of options" is good, "John Doe's info is wrong" is bad ).

The format is "when added to 40-man roster" : "Name" (when optioned, DFA'd or outrighted, *# of option years left)

Sep 08: Conor Gillaspie (never optioned)
Aug 08: Pablo Sandoval (never optioned)
Aug 08: Ryan Rohlinger (never optioned)
Jul 08: Geno Espineli (optioned in 08, outright'd 10/08)
Jul 08: Ivan Ochoa (optioned in 08, BUT was a FA and had been opt by Cle. outright'd 10/08)
Jun 08: Sergio Romo (opt in 08, *2 years left)
May 08: Brian Horwitz (opt in 08, *2 years left, outright'd 9/08)
May 08: Alex Hinshaw (never optioned)
Apr 08: Emmanuel Burriss (never optioned)
Mar 08: Keiichi Yabu (opt in 08, *2 years left)
Mar 08: Steve Holm (opt in 08, *2 years left)
Mar 08: Brian Bocock (opt in 08, *2 years left)

Sep-Dec 2007 : Clay Timpner (op 2008, *2 years left - outright'd 9/08 )
Sep-Dec 2007 : John Bowker (op 2008, *2 years left)
Sep-Dec 2007 : Kelvin Pichardo (op 2008, *2 years left)
Sep-Dec 2007 : Travis Denker (op 2008, *2 years left)

Sep-Dec 2006 : Eugenio Velez (op 2007, 2008, *1 year left)
Sep-Dec 2006 : Osiris Matos (op 2007, 2008, *1 year left)
Sep-Dec 2006 : Pat Misch (op 2007, 2008, *1 year left)
Sep-Dec 2006 : Billy Sadler (op 2007, 2008, *1 year left)

May 2006 : Jonathan Sanchez (op 2006, 2007, *1 year left)
Apr 2006 : Kevin Frandsen (op 2006, 2007, *1 year left)
Apr 2006 : Brian Wilson (op 2006, 2007, *1 year left)

Sep-Dec 2005 :Travis Ishikawa (op 06, 07, 08)
Sep-Dec 2005 :Nate Schierholtz (op 06, 07, 08)

June 2005 : Jack Taschner (op 2005, 06, *1 year left)
Nov 2004 : Scott Munter (op 2005, 2006, 2007)
Munter no contract for 08, signed a minor league contract 6/08
Nov 2004 : Erick Threets (op 2005, 06, 07, outright'd 6/08)
Nov 2004 : Fred Lewis (op 2005, 06, 07)
Nov 2004 : Dan Ortmeier (op 2005, 06, 07, outright'd 7/08)
Nov 2003 : Merkin Valdez (op 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007)
Sep 2003 : Noah Lowry (op 2004, *2 years left)

If a player doesn't go down to the minors, he doesn't use an option year. Sanchez had an option left all last season, but they never sent him to the minors. I think it's a really important year for Sanchez because he's just thiiiis (holding finger & index a half inch apart) close to really breaking through. He had many flashes of brillance last year for 4 innings or so, then one bad inning would kill him. He's doing well on the strikeouts, but he's nibbling too much and walking way too many guys.

Personally, I'd be happy with a (2009) rotation of Lincecum, Sanchez, Cain, Zito, Lowry (if Lowry is finally healthy enough to pitch). I'm hoping that Lowry will pitch well enough in 2009 to make a decent off-season trade, where nice prospects come back for him (because even if he's just a #3-quality in 2009, he's so cheap for 2010 and has a *team* option for 2011).

I also hope that some of Joe Martinez, Ben Syder, MadBum, Alderson (or Pucetas or Sosa or Maday ) will be ready to step up in 2010 and 2011, allowing the Giants to trade the "older" pitchers (those with just a year or two left before FA), bringing back good talent while the younger, cheap pitchers take their place.

I can dream, can't I?

Personally, I'd rather that Guzman start the season in Fresno, and play there as the starting 3B for at least 2 months. If he's killing (and the Giants need to replace somebody on the active roster who is sucking), then call him up in June.

If Guzman makes the 25 man roster, either he, Sandoval or Ishikawa is riding the pine and that doesn't help any of them develop or maintain high level of play. If Guzman goes to AAA then he is playing everyday and when/if we trade Molina and move Sandoval to C, then Guzman can be called up to play 3B (and backup SS).

There are also other reasons for leaving Guzman in the minors, all revolving around roster moves and retaining a maximum of *future* flexibility.

None of Guzman, Aurilia or Uribe are on the 40-man roster. Only one spot is open on the 40-man (after the release of Roberts). I expect Aurilia will take that spot. Adding a second person would mean dropping somebody who would then be available on waivers to all the other teams (unless somebody like Yabu or Perdomo is either traded or DFA'd).

Guzman wouldn't need to pass waivers or even use up an option year if he starts the season in Fresno. His (major league) service time clock would not start (which it would if he's on the active roster). He should be practicing defense at his position *every day* in AAA, rather than watching from the bench (as should Burriss). He should show that he can hit AAA pitching - every day (instead of watching from the bench). Guzman has fewer than 100 ABs at AAA, and the last 2 years where he "killed" in the minors, he was repeating both levels.

IF, in June, the Giants need help (Bowker blows, Pablo struggles, Velez is a bust, etc) that is the right time to call up Guzman. If he stayed up all year after that, that would be plenty of time for him to show how well he can hit major league pitching AND he wouldn't be a super-two (i.e., avail for arbitration after the 2011 season, which he *would* be if he started the season in the majors, or were called up before late May or June).

It still pisses me off that the Giants didn't find some good "excuse" to send Lincecum back to the minors for 2-3 weeks back in 2007. If they had, he probably wouldn't be a super-two after this season, which is going to cost the Giants a boat-load of money. 2007 was a wasted season, as this one is going to be. (By wasted, I mean not making it to the WS. The team management shouldn't be trying to win 82 or 85 games instead of 75.) This year should be spent setting up the future, without sacrificing options or versatility; if that happens, it would be a good year. Having Guzman on the team in Apr would sacrifice options and (future) versatility. IF it turns out that the Giants are killing in May, top of the division, but Bowker or Velez blow, then call up (a hot) Guzman in late May. That's a win / win / win situation. No negative consequences, no time/options etc. used "just to see"; and he's only called up if *needed* AND he's shown he can hit.

Why have a guy on the team *out of ST* who has <100 ABs at AAA or higher, and blew in AAA? What is lost by having him in the minors for 2 months? A game? 3? 5? That doesn't matter this year. This year, Pablo should get all the possible starts at 3B, Ishi at 1B (at least through June). Guzman playing in 10 games, with 50 ABs through June would be a waste, IMO : he should start every day in the minors.

Up until Roberts got released, I'd expected hom to be on the roster as the 5th bench player. Now, I think that spot should go to Bowker. With both Nate and Lewis not yet at 100%, they should really have a 5th OF to start the season. He also can play 1B for double switches or pinch hitting (and stay on field). Bowker is already on the 40-man roster (unlike Guzman).

So my 5 bench players would be :
Velez (switch hitter) - a defensive liability everywhere, but 2B, LF, CF
Schierholtz (L) RF, LF (?CF)
Holm (R) C
Bowker (L) 1B, LF
Aurilia (R) 1B, 2B, 3B (SS in a pinch, if desperate)


8 starters :
C : Molina
1B : Ishikawa
2B : Frandsen
3B : Pablo
SS : Renteria
LF : Lewis
CF : Rowand
RF : Winn