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Bleacher140 wrote:

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"Good Soldiers" are not going to win the championship and the only reason they are winning is that magical combination of Lincecum and Cain.

Fans will be fooling themselves if they think that this franchise or any franchise can continue to produce Lincecums and Cains, once they become free agents.

The window of championship opportunities started ticking last season. It looks like it will be "More of the Same" next season. Pretty foolish to squander this opportunity.

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I'd like a half acre property in upscale Los Gatos, and I hate to squander this golden opportunity of the current real estate price collapse, but in reality I just can't afford it. The Giants are in the same boat. I wouldn't be surprised if the ownership group is scared sh*tless about the worsening economy and how it will lower attendance (and food/drink spending) for the 3rd year in a row. I really don't see how they can afford (monetarily, not figuratively) to raise the salary budget for 2011 or 2011. And a significant raise in salary would be necessary to make this team a real contender.

The Giants painted themselves into this corner starting (maybe) in late 2004, when they guaranteed Bonds' extra year (06) by waiving the plate appearance clause in the contract. (They had set themselves up for it earlier by signing *so many* back-loaded and deferred-payment contracts, but it was pretty damn obvious starting in the 2005 season.) When Bonds got injured, they should have started preparing for the post-Bonds (expecting a 41-year-old man to come back as good as he was before the knee surgery was insane). They then compounded their stupidity by continuing the exact same strategy that had failed for so many years in a row : surrounding a not-quite-as-good Bonds with mediocre talent that was over paid, and whose contracts were back-loaded and with deferred payments. Adding Benitez and an ailing Alou was stupid. They compounded that by signing Matt Morris, and giving Winn that insane extension. And then they go off the deep end - throwing money at Durham, signing Bonds to the contract with so much money deferred, the Zito lunacy, and *continuing* to bring in mediocre players at top dollar (Roberts, Rowand, etc.).

2009 was the last year with any significant deferred money (that hadn't already been put in a bank account, where Bonds' annual $5M is sitting). In 2009 the Giants paid *over* $15M to guys that never set foot on the field : Bonds (07 contract), Benitez, Vizquel, Morris, Lowry, Roberts. Now they've finally managed to get out from under Robert's and Winn's contracts. What with all the payments to guys no longer on the team, the salary for 2009 was *over $100M* (even though the salary for the 25-man roster on opening day was just $82M). There's still some heavy weights holding down the buget : Zito, Rowand and Renteria. Those 3 guys accounted for almost exactly HALF of the salary of the opening day roster. The remaining 22 guys split the other half. As of right now, with the guys already signed (including spots that will probably go to FAs, but a $400k prospect can be penciled in) the Giants 2010 payroll is (drumroll please) ... almost $80M. And they still need to find a 5th starter, a couple of guys for the pen, a catcher, and a bat or two. Some could come from the minors, but there isn't a lot of money to sign FAs.

I do *not* want to see the Giants start signing more stupid contracts like they have the past 10 years or so. The "gotta go for it NOW, we'll think about the future later" mentality (with Bonds) is what dug them this big, deep hole in the first place. They are finally crawling out of that hole; I don't want to see 3-year contracts for crappy players, which will keep them in that hole. The only hope for the Giants (since they aren't going to up the salary to $110M) is that some of the players already on the team have a great year or two (improvements from Schierholtz, Bowker, Ishikawa, Guzman, ...). Signing one big bat isn't going to help much (he'll be pitched around, just like Bonds was - UNLESS there are several guys who can do damage hitting behind him: we're back to my "pray some of the kids have a great year" strategy).